Brazil enters 2026 facing a complex political moment marked by electoral uncertainty, deep polarisation, and an increasingly assertive judiciary. Recent polling confirms that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the frontrunner in the presidential contest, yet narrowing margins against right-wing challengers highlight a volatile landscape. At the same time, the imprisonment of former president Jair Bolsonaro has redefined the balance of power between elected leaders and Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, raising questions about the long-term health of democratic institutions.
Lula Ahead, but the Race Tightens
According to the first Genial/Quaest survey of the year, President Lula continues to lead all tested first-round and runoff scenarios. His support ranges between the mid-30s and 40% across multiple hypothetical match-ups, confirming his status as the dominant electoral force. However, the margins separating him from key challengers have narrowed since late 2025, particularly against São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who registers the smallest deficit in a potential second round.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, endorsed by his father despite the former president’s imprisonment and political ban, has consolidated his position as the principal opposition figure. His growing appeal extends beyond Bolsonaro loyalists to segments of the broader right, signalling that the Bolsonaro brand continues to shape Brazil’s political debate even in the absence of its founder.
While Lula would defeat both Flávio Bolsonaro and other conservative governors in runoffs, the data suggests voter enthusiasm remains muted. A majority of respondents believe Lula does not deserve another term, and rejection rates for both Lula and Flávio exceed 50%, underscoring widespread dissatisfaction with Brazil’s political choices.
Voter Sentiment and Economic Unease
Public perceptions of governance present a mixed picture. Although unemployment has reached its lowest level in over a decade, many Brazilians report feeling less secure in the labour market than a year ago. Economic pessimism persists, with a plurality saying conditions have deteriorated over the past 12 months, even as longer-term expectations remain cautiously optimistic.
Violence remains the dominant public concern, followed by corruption and economic performance. These anxieties reflect enduring structural challenges that neither Lula’s administration nor the opposition has fully resolved, reinforcing voter ambivalence despite clear electoral frontrunners.
Bolsonaro’s Conviction and the Power of the Court
Overlaying the electoral contest is the lasting impact of Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction for plotting a coup following his 2022 defeat. The Supreme Federal Court, led by Justice Alexandre de Moraes, sentenced the former president to 27 years in prison, a historic ruling widely praised for preventing democratic rupture.
Yet the court’s actions have also fuelled debate about judicial overreach. Recent decisions, including the improvement of Bolsonaro’s prison conditions, illustrate a careful balancing act: asserting authority while managing political backlash. Critics argue that the judiciary’s expansive role reflects not only a defence of constitutional order, but also an effort to safeguard its own institutional power and legitimacy.
Brazil’s Supreme Court has accumulated significant influence over the past two decades, intervening in areas ranging from public health policy during the pandemic to criminal proceedings against senior political figures. This concentration of authority has revived longstanding concerns about “supremocracy” — the dominance of an unelected body within a fragile political system.
Democracy Preserved, or Power Reconfigured?
Bolsonaro’s downfall has not eliminated Bolsonarism. Polling shows persistent fear among voters of both a return of the Bolsonaro family and the continuation of Lula’s presidency, reflecting a nation trapped in binary politics. Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes negotiations over sentencing reductions and amnesty proposals suggest that elite bargaining remains central to Brazil’s political outcomes.
In this context, Lula’s advantage in the polls does not translate into broad-based enthusiasm, while the judiciary’s prominence raises questions about democratic balance. Brazil has avoided an authoritarian rupture, but it now faces a subtler challenge: reconciling electoral legitimacy, judicial authority, and public trust in a deeply polarised society.
As the 2026 election approaches, Brazil’s future will hinge not only on who wins at the ballot box, but on whether its institutions can recalibrate power without further eroding confidence in democracy itself.
Written by:
*Dr Iqbal Survé
Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN
*Cole Jackson
Lead Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Chinese & South America Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or .
