Global value chains have entered a phase of structural volatility, forcing companies and governments to rethink how and where they invest, produce and trade, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) report released on Monday.
The report, Global Value Chains Outlook 2026: Orchestrating Corporate and National Agility, developed in collaboration with consultancy Kearney, finds that disruption is no longer a cyclical shock but a defining feature of the global economy.
Nearly three in four business leaders surveyed now prioritise resilience investments, with 74% viewing resilience not as a cost but as a driver of long-term growth.
Set against a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, accelerating technological change and mounting resource constraints, the report argued that competitiveness in the coming decade will depend less on efficiency alone and more on foresight, flexibility and coordination across ecosystems.
“Volatility is no longer a temporary disruption; it is a structural condition leaders must plan for,” said Kiva Allgood, managing director for WEF.
“Competitive advantage now comes from foresight, optionality and ecosystem coordination. Companies and countries that build these capabilities together will be best positioned to attract investment, secure supply and sustain growth in an increasingly fragmented global economy.”
The WEF said the scale of the shift is already visible in global trade patterns. In 2025 alone, tariff escalations between major economies reshuffled more than $400 billion in global trade flows, as companies adjusted sourcing strategies in response to shifting trade rules and political risk.
At the same time, disruptions across major shipping routes pushed container shipping costs up 40% year on year, highlighting the vulnerability of logistics networks to geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks and infrastructure bottlenecks.
These pressures, the report noted, signal a decisive move away from short-lived disruptions towards a prolonged period of uncertainty.
The WEF said manufacturing data further underscored the strain. Output across advanced economies is growing at its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2009, while governments around the world are intervening more aggressively in industrial activity.
More than 3 000 new trade and industrial policy measures were introduced globally in 2025 alone, more than three times the annual level recorded a decade ago.
Together, the WEF said these trends underlined why supply chain resilience has become a central pillar of national competitiveness and corporate strategy, the report says.
For decades, global value chains were optimised for cost efficiency, speed and scale. The WEF argued that this model is no longer fit for purpose in a world shaped by strategic rivalry, trade fragmentation and labour shortages.
“Supply chain disruption in 2026 will be constant and structural. Geopolitical fragmentation, shifting trade rules and labour shortages are all redefining how value is created and moved,” said Per Kristian Hong, partner at Kearney.
“For supply leaders, the priority is no longer forecasting disruption, but redesigning operating models to function under permanent uncertainty. That means moving away from efficiency-driven supply chains and towards adaptive networks that can be reconfigured with optionality as conditions change.”
A central feature of the report is the launch of the Manufacturing and Supply Chain Readiness Navigator, a new digital tool designed to translate global risk insights into practical decision-making.
Drawing on leading global indices, the Navigator allows governments to assess manufacturing competitiveness, identify infrastructure and skills gaps, and prioritise policy reforms.
For companies, it offers a structured way to evaluate potential investment locations based on factors such as logistics performance, digital readiness, workforce capabilities and ecosystem maturity.
The WEF said the tool reflects a growing recognition that industrial strategy and corporate location decisions are increasingly intertwined, particularly as governments compete to attract investment while safeguarding supply security.
The WEF concludes that as volatility becomes embedded in the global system, resilience will increasingly define economic leadership. Countries and companies that can align industrial policy, technology investment and ecosystem coordination are likely to attract capital and talent, while those clinging to narrowly efficiency-driven models risk falling behind.
BUSINESS REPORT
