This year will go down as one that offered fascinating developments for South Africa from a geopolitical perspective but also tested the balance of power in the country’s political systems.
Here are some key events that will shape the country on both the domestic and international fronts:
G20 Summit
Besides the US boycotting the event, South Africa made history by becoming the first African country to host the summit in 2025. The US presence was particularly important because South Africa was to hand over the G20 Presidency after the event.
Nevertheless, the event was hailed a success thanks to the attendance of most of the European leaders, particularly those who are known US allies. There were fears that because of South Africa’s association with Russia, through its membership of BRICS, most of the western European countries would not attend the summit. Western Europe and the US are in a fierce diplomatic war with Russia after the latter attacked Ukraine in 2022.
The US and western Europe backed Ukraine with weapons and financial support as the world was left with polarising views on the conflict.
Russia invaded Ukraine after it applied for NATO membership, which is a brainchild of the US and western European countries after World War 2. Russian president, Vladimir Putin viewed Ukraine’s decision to join NATO as a threat to Russia’s national security as both countries are neighbours. Ukraine was a key constituent republic, within the Soviet Union from 1922 until its dissolution in 1991.
US and SA relations are currently at an all time low and US president Donald Trump announced that he would not invite President Cyril Ramaphosa when the US hosts the G20 next year. Besides being angered by SA’s membership of BRICS, which advocates for a new world order including dedollarisation, the anger was exacerbated by SA’s support for Palestine against the invasion of Gaza by Israel. South Africa took Israel to the International Criminal Court where it was found guilty of committing genocide in Gaza.
President Ramaphosa’s visit to the White House
The fallout between Pretoria and Washington led to a much publicised meeting between Ramaphosa and Trump at the White House in May. Ramaphosa as part of his entourage took businessman Johann Rupert and Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen with the hope to dispel the US myth that there is white genocide taking place in South Africa.
However, this did not help as Trump still uses the false narrative to isolate the country. The white genocide narrative is being pushed by Afrikaner interest groups like AfriForum with allegations that they ‘feed’ Trump with misinformation that white farmers are being dispossessed of their land.
Phala Phala saga
Political pressure on President Ramaphosa comes from all fronts. While he is focusing on fixing US and SA diplomatic relations, the Phala Phala scandal refuses to disappear as his detractors within his party, the ANC, are said to be planning to recall him citing the reputational damage the scandal has caused to the party. This is despite Ramaphosa being cleared by the Public Protector’s report on the same issue. The report found that the president did not violate the Executive Members Ethics Code.
His detractors also blamed him for choosing the DA and Freedom Plus over leftist parties such EFF and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party when forming the Government of National Unity. The decision is believed to be one that pushed the SACP further away from the ANC. The ANC’s main historical alliance partner will go toe to toe with the ANC in the local government elections later next year.
Prior to the ANC’s National General Council, there were rumours that Ramaphosa would not return as both the country and ANC’s president. This did not materialise.
Ramaphosa’s supposed downfall was reportedly led by demoted cabinet ministers Joe Phahla and Mondli Gungubele. When the GNU was formed in July last year, Phahla was relegated to the deputy Health minister position, making way for Aaron Motsoaledi who had to leave the Home Affairs department to make way for a DA minister. Gungubele who was Communications and Digital Technologies Minister was relegated to deputise DA Minister Solly Malatsi, who now heads up the communications portfolio.
Police Minister Senzo Mchunu
Mchunu’s alleged links with Gauteng drug cartels, was revealed in an explosive July media briefing by KwaZulu-Natal provincial Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi. These claims appear to have destroyed Mchunu’s political ambitions, particularly his ANC presidential campaign.
The allegations compelled Ramaphosa to establish a commission to investigate the claims as they relate to national security. Retired Constitutional Court judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga was appointed to lead the commission. According to Mkhwanazi, Mchunu’s decision to disband the Political Killings Task Team was influenced by the unit’s assistance in dismantling drug cartels.
Mkhwanazi claimed that businessmen Vusi Cat Matlala and Katiso KT Molefe, were central players in influencing police top brass to interfere in investigations. The unit was formed in 2018 to probe the murders of politicians in KwaZulu-Natal and throughout the country. Mchunu was believed to have asked Matlalal to fund his ANC presidential campaign, an allegation he denied. Although there is no evidence linking Mchunu to the drug cartels, he is alleged to have used Brown Mogotsi as a middleman in communicating with Matlala.
Mchunu has appeared in both the Mandlanga Commission and Parliament’s Ad Hoc Committee. Mchunu has denied all the allegations made by Mkhwanazi. The Commission submitted its preliminary findings to the president recently.
Disbandment of Gauteng and KZN ANC leadership
Earlier this year, the ANC’s national executive committee took a decision to disband and reconfigure both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive committees after their dismal electoral performance in last year’s general elections. These populous provinces have been crucial in delivering the ANC to power since 1994 and their decline contributed to the party’s loss of majority for the first time since the dawn of democracy. This prompted the national leadership to beef up provincial committees with senior party leaders from outside brought in to assist to revive the lost support.
However, the national leadership appeared unimpressed with the KwaZulu-Natal task team which came under heavy criticism from Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula. On the last day of the National General Council, two weeks ago, Mbalula launched a blistering attack on Jeff Radebe’s task team, referring to them as a ‘Toyota Tazz’ when he wanted to see a Ferrari.
He said that when he introduced the task team in February, he thought they would move with the speed of a Ferrari to revive party branches, however, they moved slowly like a Tazz. He then announced that a new task team would be established early next year. It is unclear whether the new team will succeed in organising 11 regional conferences and go to provincial conferences while also focusing on preparing for local government elections which is expected to be held in November.
Another highlight in KZN provincial politics was the arrest and trial of Umkhonto weSizwe Party member of parliament Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla. She was arrested and charged for public violence, incitement and incitement to commit terrorism in relation to deadly 2021 civil unrest.
The unrest which was sparked by the arrest of her father, former president Jacob Zuma, left more than 300 people dead and caused the loss of billions of rands to the economy. During her marathon trial in the Durban High Court, scores of party supporters, including members of parliament, came out to support her. Her father also attended and is expected to be called as her first witness.
Before the adjournment, the State had called several witnesses including social media law expert Emma Sadleir who suggested that Zuma-Sambudla should have been also charged under Cybercrimes Act. Sadleir testified that Zuma-Sambudla’s posts on her X account were inciteful and she should be held liable for the unrest. The trial will resume in April next year.
Also this year, Zuma-Sambudla resigned from all parliament positions after she was linked to the recruitment of 17 young mercenaries to join Russia’s army in its conflict against Ukraine. The matter is under investigation by SA authorities.
Throughout the year, the MKP has kept the Government of Provincial Unity on its toes with threats to dismantle it with the help of the NFP. The threats finally came to a head during the motion of no confidence Zuma’s party had filed against Premier Thamsanqa Ntuli last week. With the support of the EFF with two seats and one from NFP, the MKP was hoping to create a stalemate at 40-40. The MKP has 37 seats in the 80-seat legislature. The motion was dismissed by NFP’s Mbali Shinga who defied her party bosses and voted against the MKP, thereby ensuring that Ntuli remains the KZN Premier.
