Africa Must Avert the Looming War in Sudan

Capt. Mike Mukula

27 June 2011

analysis

Abyei, Kordofan and Bentiu are three oil-rich but highly contested areas in Sudan. The contest is between the Arab north and the predominantly Black south. As we discuss this issue, it is an open secret that leaders in Khartoum and Juba are gearing up for a final showdown!

Due to this conflict over resources, an estimated 100,000 people have already been displaced from the three said areas! And if readers may recall, an estimated three million lives have been lost during South Sudan’s war for self-determination, over the last four decades. And as the conflict simmers further, the prophets of doom are encouraging both the north and south to slug it out.

While Gen. Omar el Bashir’s government in Khartoum has been sounding war drums by deploying tanks, fighter helicopters, infantry soldiers – and even unleashed bombs on these areas in the recent past, Juba’s Gen. Salva Kiir has not been innocent either. The latter has been moving around with an expensive shopping list for military hardware, in preparation for a showdown with the Arabs in the north!

In a similar vein, Khartoum has been buying weapons from China, Russia and former Soviet republics! Also, Bashir’s plans to recruit Mujahedeen fighters among his ranks have continued unabated. Now, the purchases or attempts at purchase by the two leaders are sadly not about tractors, seeds or other farming implements to boost agricultural production, but rather of instruments that destroy human life.

Besides instigating war, Bashir has also continued setting up proxy armies with a view to destabilising the south in the hope that its political independence, which is slated for July 9, remains a mirage; an elusive dream.

In my view, although Bashir’s sins are greater, both he and Kiir are wrong to work toward a military showdown. Although the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) member countries have struggled over the past 15 years to convince the belligerents that dialogue is the best avenue to conflict resolution, it seems all these efforts might come to nil, unless sanity prevails in Khartoum and Juba.

The lull of peace which Sudan has enjoyed since the 2005 Nairobi Peace Agreement was courtesy of Igad. It was through these efforts that Khartoum agreed to grant semi-autonomy to the south- and to promise that a referendum to be held five years later, would determine whether the country were to be broken into two sovereign states.

Fast forward: It is apparent that Bashir is no longer scared of the noose hanging over his neck for alleged abuse of human rights in Darfur. Instead, he seems hell-bent on grabbing oil-rich areas from the south instead of sharing the said wealth with Juba.

In my view, the African Union should rein in the two military generals before push comes to shove in the disputed areas. The Arab League can do little to help, since it has been embroiled in the so-called Arab Spring since February this year- with one regime crumbling after another. The United States, which could have weighed in on the side of South Sudan, seems to have a lot on its plate; with conflicts

ranging from Afghanistan to Iraq, Libya, and the global war on terrorism.

That leaves one option: the Africa Union. Since this is an African problem, it is high time our leaders engaged a stronger gear so that war is averted. It would be a pity if Africa’s newest or imminent member state (South Sudan) were to be immersed in war. Surely, hasn’t Africa bled enough?

How much blood must ooze from innocent veins as political/military heavy weights jostle for space to grab oil and other mineral resources? I implore African presidents and their parliamentarians to up the ante for dialogue in Sudan so that innocent lives are not lost in a war that can be avoided.

Capt. Mukula is chairman of the Pan African Movement, Uganda Chapter

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