Jonathan’s presidency: Who calls the shots in the next four years?

Just before the euphoria of President Jonathan’s victory in the presidential elections died down, the struggle for appointments into his cabinet took the centre stage. His weeklong vacation at the Obudu Cattle Ranch may not have provided opportunity for rest as he received dozens of lobbyists and held meetings with party officials. The president is expected to appoint his cabinet shortly after inauguration. But who are the political actors that will call the shots in the next government?

Already, such power brokers have begun to manifest as the President works on his new government. Early indications, though not unexpected, have illuminated the shadows of familiar godfathers like former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, Chief Tony Anenih and Chief Edwin Clerk, around the president. While Obasanjo is known to have skewed Jonathan’s way to the presidency in 2007, the duo of Anenih and Clerk are believed to have made the noise that helped to consolidate his hold on power during President Yar’dua’s health challenges.

As Jonathan dealt with the situation in Obudu during his vacation, Obasanjo’s home in Offa, Ogun State, was also said to have been turned into a Mecca of sort for lobbyists. The former president who heads PDP’s Board of Trustees is believed to enjoy Jonathan’s loyalty because of the role he played in bringing him to power. Presently, Obasanjo has succeeded in getting the PDP to zone the position of speaker of the House of Representatives to the South West region in spite of the dismal performance of the party in the region. And he has gone a step further to anoint a candidate –Rep Abiola Muraina.

Though the presidency had given initial blessing, sources close to the president told said that he might be having a second thought. Because of his association with the former president, Muraina’s project has been difficult to sell. And the president is said to be wary of the outcome should he insist on Obasanjo’s candidate. In the run up to the primary elections of the PDP in Ogun State, the president gave his support to the Obasanjo led faction, but not even his daughter, Iyabo, was returned to the Senate.

In the ongoing struggle for ministerial appointments, the residences of Obasanjo, Anenih and Clerk are said to be suffused by lobbyists. Aside the above elders, other groups and individuals are widely expected to turn things around in the presidency. Senate President David Mark is one such politician. Political observers believe that the Senate presidency was zoned to him personally and not the North Central. Mark’s role in contriving the doctrine of necessity that made Jonathan acting president in the dying days of the Yar’adua regime is believed to have warmed him into the heart of the president.

From the inception of the present democratic dispensation, the Senate President has always come from the same geographical area with the president using the North-South divide. For instance when Obasanjo, form South West, was president, the Senate President went to the South East. When Yar’adua, from North West, came on board, the Senate President went to the North Central. But Mark’s personal influence in the presidency has changed the equation.

Other actors expected to have influence in the presidency include conveners of the Northern Political Summit, also known as G20. They include former information minister Professor Jerry Gana, pioneer chairman of the PDP, Chief Solomon Lar and Alhaji Hassan Adamu, Wakilin Adamawa. The group had held a lecture in Kaduna to drum up support for Jonathan’s presidency on the heels of the activities of the Northern Political Leader Forum which insisted that the presidency returns to the North in 2011. Already, a source said the presidency is considering Alhaji Hassan Adamu for the position of National Chairman of the PDP which has been zoned to his region, the north east.

The governors’ forum is also expected to play a key role in influencing the direction of the Jonathan administration. Since 1999, the forum has taken the lead in deciding the political direction of the country at the federal government level and even more so after the exit of President Obasanjo. In 2003, PDP governors brought Obasanjo to his knees when they insisted that his vice, Atiku Abubakar be made to replace him. And though he tightened the noose in his second term, he obviously could run away from picking his successor and the vice president from among the governors.

Subsequently, Jonathan himself could not go outside the forum in nominating his vice when President Yar’adua died. Last year, the Forum stepped in to scuttle the move by members of the National Assembly to bulldoze their way into the National Executive Committees of their political parties through a proposed amendment to the Electoral Act. During the presidential primary, Jonathan also relied largely on state governors who delivered him from the political force of Atiku Abubakar and his allies in the Northern Political Leaders Forum.

In terms of political party influence, the PDP is still ahead. In the April polls, it took the lead among the 63 registered political parties winning the Presidential elections and 18 governorship seats across the country. The party is also in control of Adamawa, Kogi, Bayelsa, Cross Rivers and Sokoto states where elections did not take place, taking its sphere of influence to 23 states.

But the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) will also have a major influence in the next four years having won 6 states and a large number of representations at the National Assembly. The results of the April elections showed that All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) won Imo State to add to Anambra in its area of control. Labour Party and the Congress for Progressive Change now have one state each under their control.

ACN’s success thus brings the party’s strong man Ahmed Bola Tinubu into the circle of those who may call the shots in the next four years. In the run up to the elections in April, Tinubu had become a bride being sought after for alliance. His talks with General Buhari failed after which he was alleged to have struck a deal with President Jonathan. The ACN has denied this but whether by omission or commission, Jonathan swept the brooms in the south west during the presidential elections, defeating ACN’s candidate Nuhu Ribadu.

With ACN’s fairly strong showing in the National Assembly and the six states under its control, the president will certainly need Tinubu in the next four. PDP still retains its majority position in both chambers of the assembly, though not absolute. In the Senate, for instance, PDP secured 71 seats, two short of absolute majority; the ACN follows with 18 seats, while General Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC and the ANPP won 7 and 8 seats respectively. Labour Party and APGA got four and one respectively.

The outcome of the elections suggests that the INEC may deregister about 55 registered political parties that failed to win at least a seat in the state House of Assembly.

According to the 2011 Electoral Act as amended, section 78 (1) (7) (2), “the commission shall have power to deregister political parties on the following grounds: For failure to win presidential, governorship election or a seat in the National or State Assembly election.”

From INEC records, the following political parties were able to win at least one state House of Assembly seat: Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Accord Party, Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) and Peoples Democratic Congress (PDC).

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